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ELECTION - 12 days from today

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 21, 2010

MORE EVIDENCE OF A GOP ROMP – AT 9:41 P.M. ET:   The Pew Research Center, not exactly a conservative hotbed, has a stunning report out tonight confirming surveys by others reporting that the Republicans will have a great election day in less than two weeks:

As the midterm elections approach, there is every indication that voter turnout will be as high as in 2006, but unlike four years ago, Republicans – not Democrats – are now more engaged and enthusiastic about casting a ballot. The prospects for a GOP turnout advantage on Election Day are almost as favorable in the new Pew Research Center survey as they have been in all previous polls throughout the campaign.

The new survey does show some signs of the Democrats awakening. A growing number of Democratic voters say they have given a lot of thought to the coming elections and more say they have been closely following campaign news. However, Republican engagement continues at record levels, dwarfing even improved Democratic showings on these indicators.

Consequently, a considerably greater percentage of Republicans than Democrats still fall into the likely voter category. Moreover, the new survey shows that Democrats have lost ground among all voters: Currently, 46% of registered voters favor the Republican candidate in their district or lean Republican, while 42% favor the Democratic candidate or lean Democratic. In early September, 44% backed the Republican while 47% supported the Democratic candidate.

And get this:

When the current survey is narrowed to those most likely to vote, the GOP holds a double-digit advantage – 50% to 40%. In early September, Republicans held a seven-point lead among likely voters (50% to 43%).

COMMENT:  Looks good, but remember that many of the Senate races are especially tight and can go either way.  But, with 12 days to go, the general Republican effort seems in solid shape...barring an October surprise.

October 21, 2010      Permalink

THERE IS ANGER, THERE IS FURY, THERE IS MONEY – AT 8:12 P.M. ET:  The big story today, buzzing through Washington and the internet, is the firing of Juan Williams by NPR, National Predictable Radio, which got a 1.8-million-dollar grant from fringe leftist George Soros only a few days ago.

Everyone is in an uproar.  Even the ladies of "The View" unanimously decided that NPR, which also receives public funding, screwed up royally.  As we reported earlier, Williams's crime was to say he became nervous if he saw a Muslim on an airliner, an emotion felt by millions.  He quickly added that people should not blame all Muslims for the crimes of a few.

NPR would not even permit Williams to come in and discuss the issue.  He's worked at NPR for 10 years.  Indeed, an NPR executive publicly said that the comments Williams made are between him and his psychiatrist or publicist, a sleazy remark for which she had to later apologize.

There is widespread suspicion that a major contributing factor to Williams's dismissal is his association with Fox News.  Fox today announced that Williams's role at the network will now be expanded.

I think this is a defining moment.  Americans are tired of this extreme political correctness. 

There are serious calls for NPR to be stripped of federal funding.  There are calls for congressional investigations.  Neither of these things will happen unless Republicans take over at least one house of Congress in the elections now only 12 days ahead. 

Fox News will keep this story alive.  It has legs.  Already, commentators are pointing out the comments of other NPR reporters and analysts that did not result in their being fired.  Of course, all those comments tilted left.

Is this the beginning of the end of political correctness?  I think that's a tough order, but I believe that a big dent will appear. 

October 21, 2010       Permalink

SO YOU MAY SLEEP MORE SOUNDLY TONIGHT – AT 8:24 A.M. ET:   A little bit of Bill Clinton's past, from London's Telegraph.  Haven't seen this reported on this side of the pond:

For several months during Bill Clinton's administration, a former top military officer says the White House lost the card with a set of numbers for opening the briefcase containing the codes for a nuclear attack.

Gen Hugh Shelton, who was Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the time, said in his new memoir, "Without Hesitation: The Odyssey of an American Warrior" that "the codes were actually missing for months. That's a big deal -- a gargantuan deal."

A similar claim was made by Lt Col Robert Patterson, a former aide, in a book published seven years ago. He was one of the men who carried the briefcase, known as the "football", and he said that the morning after the Monica Lewinsky scandal broke that he made a routine request of the president to present the card so that he could provide an updated version.

"He thought he just placed them upstairs," Lt Col Patterson recalled. "We called upstairs, we started a search around the White House for the codes, and he finally confessed that he in fact misplaced them. He couldn't recall when he had last seen them."

COMMENT:  And on this the safety of our republic depends.

The aforementioned Bill Clinton is currently undergoing resurrection as an elder statesman.

October 21, 2010     Permalink

OH DEAR, OH DEAR, WHAT CAN THE MATTER BE? – AT 8:10 A.M. ET:   President Obama takes another major hit in the Gallup Poll, just as he leaves Washington to be "helpful" to Democratic candidates.  With help like this...

From Andrew Malcolm at the L.A. Times's Top of the Ticket blog:

...a new Gallup Poll out this morning puts the top Democrat himself at his lowest approval rating ever and finds most Americans do not want the Real Good Talker to have a second term.

Other than that, Obama should be a real help to Washington's embattled Patty Murray today and Nevada's embattled Harry Reid and California's embattled Barbara Boxer later, trying to salvage the large Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress.

The new survey reveals that the more Americans get to know this guy, the less they like him...

...For the third quarter of 2010, the seventh of his presidency, Obama's approval fell 2 more points, from 47.3% to 44.7%. These results are based on daily tracking polls involving some 90,000 Americans.

And...

According to Gallup's results, 39% of Americans now believe Obama deserves a second term.

Unfortunately for him, 54% believe he does not deserve a second chance at change.

That 54% against a second term is almost 2 points higher than the popular vote total Obama amassed in the 2008 election.

At this point in the second year of George W. Bush's presidency, 62% thought he deserved a second term after only 48% voted for him in 2000.

COMMENT:  What are they saying at the White House this morning, after reading this?  They're saying that the American people are too stupid to appreciate Barack Obama, that he's too good for them, and that he really should have run for king of the world rather than this lowly office, which is beneath his abilities.

And he'll be agreeing with them.

But don't get your hopes up yet.  Come 2012, Obama will be running, and the mainstream media will be right there in the bunker with him, resisting to the very end, as Republicans surround the city. 

October 21, 2010       Permalink

PENNSYLVANIA LATEST – AT 7:59 A.M. ET:   We're following closely the Pennsylvania Senate race between superlative GOP candidate Pat Toomey and depressing Dem entry Joe Sestak.  Recent polls show the race tightening.  Toomey had been ahead by ten a month ago.

New polls confirm the tightening, but give us hope.  The respected Quinnipiac poll shows Toomey up by two, and the Morning Call poll shows a tie. 

Sestak has been hammering Toomey as an extremist, and the attacks have worked.  Now Toomey is fighting back.

By the way, Sestak has said publicly that his favorite senator is Chuck Hagel, the Republican turncoat who retired from the Senate two years ago when it was apparent his own GOP wouldn't renominate him.  Hagel's wife then publicly supported Obama for president.  Hagel is a shallow, pompous clown who gave George Bush the hardest of times when Bush needed him.  Sestak's apparent love for Hagel is another reason, among others, to oppose Sestak.

We're hoping Pat Toomey can stablize the race and start to gain again.  And we're hoping the enthusiasm gap will work in his favor on election day.  I'd hate to lose this one.

October 21, 2010      Permalink

LATEST MEDIA OUTRAGE – AT 7:47 A.M. ET:  You will not believe this, from National Public Radio:

NPR News has terminated the contract of longtime news analyst Juan Williams after remarks he made on the Fox News Channel about Muslims.

Williams appeared Monday on The O'Reilly Factor, and host Bill O'Reilly asked him to comment on the idea that the U.S. is facing a dilemma with Muslims.

O'Reilly has been looking for support for his own remarks on a recent episode of ABC's The View in which he directly blamed Muslims for the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. Co-hosts Joy Behar and Whoopi Goldberg walked off the set in the middle of his appearance.

Williams responded: "Look, Bill, I'm not a bigot. You know the kind of books I've written about the civil rights movement in this country. But when I get on the plane, I got to tell you, if I see people who are in Muslim garb and I think, you know, they are identifying themselves first and foremost as Muslims, I get worried. I get nervous."

Williams also warned O'Reilly against blaming all Muslims for "extremists," saying Christians shouldn't be blamed for Oklahoma City bomber Timothy McVeigh.

But strong criticism followed Williams's comments.

What? 

The man was simply expressing what he felt in a certain situation.  And for this he's fired? 

Of course we know the real reason that NPR fired Williams.  He's a Fox News contributor.  Can't do that, can we?  And he's an African American who doesn't hesitate to criticize black leaders.  No, no, no.

This is really outrageous.  NPR is subsidized by the American people, but it's always been a left-wing mouthpiece.  This would be a good time for the new, Republican House of Representatives, about to be elected, to cut NPR's budget to, say, a quarter of its current level.  It's great way to save money.  Let Code Pink write a check for the rest.

October 21, 2010     Permalink

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 20, 2010

ELECTION ROUNDUP - AT 9:51 A.M. ET:  Lots of chatter and analysis today about the latest polls and what they show.

Overall – Republicans doing very well, on track to take the House.  The Senate remains a steep climb.  Senate races are tightening, but we learn this isn't unusual.  From the L.A. Times:

According to Real Clear Politics, there are eight Senate races where one candidate's lead in the polls is no greater than 4%.

Two surveys released Tuesday showed Democrat Joe Sestak with his first lead over Republican Pat Toomey in the Pennsylvania Senate race since just after he won the state's May primary. Kentucky’s Jack Conway has pulled to within 5% of Republican Rand Paul; an internal poll by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee shows him ahead.

A new CNN poll released today showed Republicans Joe Miller and Lisa Murkowski tied in the Alaska Senate race; Murkowski is running a write-in campaign after losing the GOP primary in August. Contests have also closed in Colorado, Washington and California, all seats held by Democrats...

....The number of competitive races is not unusual, experts say, even with the heightened focus this year. In fact, in each of the last five election cycles, the Cook Political Report has ranked nine seats as tossups by Election Day.

Those tossup races "tend to break disproportionally toward one party" once the votes are counted, according to Jennifer Duffy, Senate race analyst for the respected handicapper.

COMMENT:  We're looking at Pennsylvania, which is turning into a possible heartbreaker for Republicans, although GOP turnout on election day can save it for Pat Toomey.

Also looking at California and Washington.  Carly Fiorina is closing on the unspeakable Barbara Boxer, and Dino Rossi is closing on the barely speakable Patty Murray.  Again, turnout can erase any small Dem edge.  But the Dems have a superb ground game ("get out the vote" effort) in both states, which may negate GOP enthusiasm.  Watch these.

Republicans are at risk, not only in Pennsylvania, but in Kentucky, when slightly flakey Rand Paul is being chased by Jack Conway.  Also at risk in Colorado, where another bit of a flake job, Republican Ken Buck, is blowing his lead by foolish statements.  Once again, I must express disappointment with the quality of some Republican nominees.  They are simply not performing, not professional enough.  We hope they win, but let's learn the lesson. 

In Illinois, though, Republican Mark Kirk seems to be pulling into a respectable lead against the Democrat whose name I can't spell.

And in West Virginia, Rasmussen now shows Republican Raese with a seven-point lead over Democrat Manchin.

We'll keep you informed, day by day.

October 20, 2010      Permalink

YIPPEE – AT 7:45 P.M. ET:  Another new generic poll out has good news for the people of purity and quality.  From AOL News:

WASHINGTON -All signs point to huge Republican victories in two weeks, with the GOP now leading Democrats on virtually every measure in an Associated Press-GfK poll of people likely to vote in the first major elections of Barack Obama's presidency.

In the final survey before Election Day, likely voters say the GOP would do a better job than Democrats on handling the economy, creating jobs and running the government.

Most also think the country's headed in the wrong direction. More than half disapprove of Obama's job performance. And even more don't like the Democratic-controlled Congress.

Neither party is popular. But likely voters view the GOP a bit more positively than they do the Democrats. Slightly more say they will vote for the Republican congressional candidate in their district over the Democrat. And most think the GOP will win control of Congress from the Democrats.

And...

In another worrisome sign for Democrats, women now split pretty evenly between the two parties, 49 percent favoring Democrats, 45 percent Republicans. In 2006, Democrats took over Capitol Hill in part by winning 55 percent of the female vote to 43 percent for Republicans.

And...

The survey's key findings among likely voters show:

50 percent say they will back the GOP candidate in their House district; 43 percent say they'll support the Democrat. The edge has slightly narrowed over the past month as Democrats presumably have grown more energized...

...54 percent disapprove of Obama's job performance; 45 percent approve...

...52 percent have a favorable impression of the GOP; 44 percent view the Democratic Party positively.

COMMENT:  Ah, sometimes numbers are like music.  But these numbers must be translated into votes.  People are voting right now in many states, and early signs are good.  We'll know in less than two weeks.

October 20, 2010      Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 7:36 P.M. ET:

From the New York Post:  Only 26 percent of New York City voters want Mayor Michael Bloomberg to run for president in 2012, according to a poll released Wednesday.  The Marist College poll found that nearly two-thirds of people in the Big Apple -- 64 percent -- want him to stay on the sidelines.  The three-term mayor -- who briefly flirted with the idea of running in 2008 as an Independent, according to a host of media reports -- received a 50 percent job approval from the city’s voters in the survey.

When you tell people who are sincerely opposed to the mosque at Ground Zero that they should be ashamed of themselves, this is what happens. 

October 20, 2010      Permalink

TAKING ACTION IN BRITAIN – AT 9:03 A.M. ET:  The numbers here are really stunning.  Britain is taking drastic action to rescue its economy.  There is going to be a lot of resistance, and possibly street action, but this may turn out to be a model for the U.S.:

LONDON — Britain’s Chancellor of the Exchequer unveiled the country’s steepest public spending cuts in decades on Wednesday, sharply reducing welfare benefits and eliminating almost half a million public sector jobs over the next four years as the country seeks to free itself of crushing debt from the global financial crisis.

“Today is the day when Britain steps back from the brink,” George Osborne, the Chancellor, told Parliament.

“It is a hard road but it leads to a better future,” he said, but “to back down now would be the road to economic ruin.”

He said that 490,000 public sector jobs would be lost over the four-year savings program and the size of government departments in London would be cut by one third. Public spending would be cut by a total 83 billion pounds, or around $130 billion, by 2015.

He promised savings of an annual 7.1 per cent in the budgets of local councils and said there would be a freeze in tax funds allocated to maintaining the royal household of Queen Elizabeth II. Public housing tenants, he said, would face higher rentals closer to the market rates for private housing. Defense spending would be cut by 8 percent by 2014, he said, but promised not to reduce spending on British forces in the Afghanistan war.

COMMENT:  The defense cuts are highly controversial, and the one thing we would doubt.  Both Secretary Gates and Secretary Clinton have raised questions about those cuts, as the U.S. would have to take up any slack left by the Brits. 

Some areas, like health, would actually get more money.  The real shock is the cut of 490,000 public sector jobs.  We simply must address the fat public payroll here as well. 

As readers know, there are ongoing riots in France over the plan to increase the retirement age from 60 to 62.  There have been riots in Greece over belt tightening.  But at least countries are taking action. 

October 20, 2010      Permalink

YOU REALLY CANNOT MAKE THIS UP – AT 8:39 A.M. ET:  We report it to you straight, from ABC News:

On an upcoming trip to India, President Obama will skip visiting one of the country’s most sacred shrines out of fear that wearing the requisite headgear might make him appear Muslim, according to reports from the United States and India.

It sounds crazy, doesn't it?  But India is an ally, and snubbing an ally comes naturally to this crowd.

The New York Times, citing an unnamed American official involved in the trip’s planning, reports that the president will not stop at the Golden Temple, a Sikh holy site and one of the country’s most popular tourist attractions, because visitors typically wear headscarves, turbans or Muslim caps.

Obama was to visit the sprawling golden complex in Amritsar, "but the plan appears to have foundered on the thorny question of how Mr. Obama would cover his head, as Sikh tradition requires, while visiting the temple," wrote the Times.

"To come to golden temple he needs to cover his head," Dalmegh Singh, secretary of the committee that runs the temple told the paper. "That is our tradition. It is their problem to cover the head with a Christian hat or a Muslim cap."

I don't know what a Christian hat is, but I suggest Mr. Obama get one quickly and not create an international incident.  Is this difficult?

Obama, who is a Christian, has repeatedly had to fend off accusations that he is secretly Muslim. An April poll conducted by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life found that nearly 1 in 5 Americans believe the president is Muslim.

Well, he doesn't help matters when he grovels before every Muslim head of state within shouting distance and makes a speech in Cairo in which he grovels some more.  It's the actions, not the hat, Mr. Obama. 

Our presidency has come to this.  Reagan would have put on a cowboy hat and said, "Take it or leave it."

October 20, 2010      Permalink

ON THE OTHER HAND – AT 8:10 A.M. ET:  The news from Pennsylvania may be troublesome (see post just below), but the overall picture for Republicans nationwide continues encouraging.  From The Wall Street Journal:

A vigorous post-Labor Day Democratic offensive has failed to diminish the resurgent Republicans' lead among likely voters, leaving the GOP poised for major gains in congressional elections two weeks away, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.

Among likely voters, Republicans hold a 50% to 43% edge, up from a three-percentage-point lead a month ago.

In the broader category of registered voters, 46% favor a Democratic-controlled Congress, compared with 44% who want Republican control. But in the 92 House districts considered most competitive, the GOP's lead among registered voters is 14 points, underscoring the Democrats' challenge in maintaining their hold on the House. The poll of 1,000 registered voters was taken Oct. 14-18.

"It's hard to say Democrats are facing anything less than a category four hurricane," said Peter Hart, the Democratic pollster who conducts the Journal poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. "And it's unlikely the Democratic House will be left standing."

Mr. McInturff said the Republican lead among likely voters, if it stood, probably would yield a pickup of 52 or 53 House seats, surpassing the net gain of 39 seats the GOP needs to claim control of the chamber.

COMMENT:  We certainly hope this is right.  But brace yourself for a Democratic fear campaign in these last two weeks.  The Dems will attempt to convince vulnerable voters that everything they have, including baby food and aspirin, will be taken from them by the Republicans and given to people with 18-bedroom houses.  And some voters will buy it. 

October 20, 2010       Permalink

PENNSYLVANIA UPDATE – AT 7:52 A.M. ET:  Last night we reported the disturbing news that a new poll in Pennsylvania put Democrat Joe Sestak ahead of Pat Toomey in their race for the U.S. Senate.  Toomey had been ahead by as much as ten points.  Some discounted the poll as an outlier.

I'm afraid a second poll, just published, confirms the bad news.  It has Sestak ahead by three in a state already heavily Democratic.

Sestak, about whom I've written negatively, is regarded as a great closer in election campaigns, coming from behind on several occasions to win.  If that happens again it will be a reversal of what the GOP thought was an almost sure thing for the superb Pat Toomey.  This would be a heartbreaker. 

We'll keep you informed.  Combined with some news from other states, we must be cautious about our expectations for the Senate on election day.  The GOP, which had dreamed of finding the ten seats needed to control the Senate, may wind up with as few as four or five additions.  Not a strikeout, but no home run either.

October 20, 2010     Permalink